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Fri Jun 22, 2012, 03:10 PM

GOP could blow Arizona

A brutal GOP primary is boosting Democrats' chances of taking a Senate seat -- and Obama's chance to win the state.

http://www.salon.com/2012/06/22/gop_could_blow_arizona/singleton/

18 replies, 2686 views

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Arrow 18 replies Author Time Post
Reply GOP could blow Arizona (Original post)
DesertRat Jun 2012 OP
TexasTowelie Jun 2012 #1
Proud Liberal Dem Jun 2012 #8
TexasTowelie Jun 2012 #10
Proud Liberal Dem Jun 2012 #13
hrmjustin Jun 2012 #2
aquart Jun 2012 #3
DesertRat Jun 2012 #9
CreekDog Jun 2012 #14
HooptieWagon Jun 2012 #4
WI_DEM Jun 2012 #5
AlinPA Jun 2012 #6
jberryhill Jun 2012 #7
Jack Sprat Jun 2012 #11
CobaltBlue Jun 2012 #12
former9thward Jun 2012 #15
Individualism Jun 2012 #16
Rosanna Lopez Jun 2012 #17
CobaltBlue Jun 2012 #18

Response to DesertRat (Original post)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 03:11 PM

1. GOP could blow me,

but I won't let them.

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Response to TexasTowelie (Reply #1)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 06:01 PM

8. ..........



Thanks for making me ruin my keyboard!

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Response to Proud Liberal Dem (Reply #8)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 11:52 PM

10. The OP was a setup for a zinger!

I couldn't resist.

I hope that your keyboard dried out.

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Response to TexasTowelie (Reply #10)

Sat Jun 23, 2012, 09:58 AM

13. Indeed it was!

My keyboard is fine, thanks!

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Response to DesertRat (Original post)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 03:12 PM

2. might be my friend.

I wonder if all those flds will vote for a mainstream mormon. If not that is not good for him. there are alot of flds in AZ.

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Response to DesertRat (Original post)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 03:13 PM

3. In Arizona? Don't get too excited.

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Response to aquart (Reply #3)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 09:46 PM

9. I'm not so sure about the presidential race

But I think we have a decent shot at the Senate seat.

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Response to aquart (Reply #3)

Sat Jun 23, 2012, 10:56 AM

14. People don't seem to see the value in having them sweat a gimme state

or what should be one.

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Response to DesertRat (Original post)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 03:18 PM

4. Probably not, but...

if they have to work and spend for it, it helps Obama elsewhere.

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Response to DesertRat (Original post)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 03:19 PM

5. given how tight recent polls are in AZ and strong hispanic support, Obama should

go all in and say he is going for it--the way Mitt is doing in Michigan.

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Response to DesertRat (Original post)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 03:19 PM

6. Those 10 EVs would be great, but IMO AZ is still a GOP state when it comes to the presidential race.

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Response to DesertRat (Original post)

Fri Jun 22, 2012, 04:29 PM

7. They could blow a lot of things

They have a lot of practice under their belt.

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Response to DesertRat (Original post)

Sat Jun 23, 2012, 01:44 AM

11. I hope so. n/t

 

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Response to DesertRat (Original post)

Sat Jun 23, 2012, 06:08 AM

12. I'd like Arizona to flip!

Last edited Sat Jun 23, 2012, 01:57 PM - Edit history (1)

In order to win Arizona, the Democrats have to cut into Republican Maricopa County's margin and catapult a landslide victory in Pima County. Phoenix is the county seat in the former, and the city votes Democratic (while the county votes GOP); Tucson is the county seat in the latter (which is usually in the Democratic column), but its margins have recently been no greater than 15 points. (In lots of heavily populous Democratic counties, they're typically carried by more than 20 points, and others tend to get carriage of 2-to-1 margins. (In 2008, Barack Obama won many closer to 3-to-1 margins.)

I am hoping—if it turns out President Obama wins re-election—he gets a traditional electoral-vote score (typically it's a gain over the first) and Ariz. flips into his 2012 column. Any state won by John McCain, from the last election, in which Mitt Romney fails to carry means he's not going to unseat the president.

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Response to DesertRat (Original post)

Sat Jun 23, 2012, 03:20 PM

15. I have not seen a single ad for the Democratic Senate candidate (Richard Camona).

I have not seen a single yard sign or street sign. I have gotten a few emails from the state party but that is about it.

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Response to DesertRat (Original post)

Sun Jun 24, 2012, 08:41 AM

16. they blew their on state convention there

 

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Response to DesertRat (Original post)

Sun Jun 24, 2012, 06:37 PM

17. Building for the future?

Nate Silver currently gives Romney an 86% chance of winning Arizona. I just don't see it voting for Obama this year. In a better year for Democrats I could see it being possible (like it was for Bill Clinton in 1996), but I think it will be at least 2016 before it happens.

Still, even if one doesn't win a state it's important to build for down the road for the next Democratic Nominee. Ground work now could be beneficial later. It's the same as the situation in Texas. The majority of Latinos in Texas would vote Democratic, but the DNC has not made an effort to register them all and mobilize the vote. It's a missed opportunity. Texas could be winnable for the Democrats at some point in another decade if work was put into it.

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Response to Rosanna Lopez (Reply #17)

Mon Jun 25, 2012, 07:46 AM

18. You're right about Texas! And even beyond that I must say...

Nate Silver currently gives Romney an 86% chance of winning Arizona. I just don't see it voting for Obama this year. In a better year for Democrats I could see it being possible (like it was for Bill Clinton in 1996), but I think it will be at least 2016 before it happens.


I followed FiveThirtyEight.com and Nate Silver in 2008. It was around this time of year he gave Barack Obama just a 27-percent chance of flipping Florida. Never mind that Fla. routinely votes with the winner (all elections, except 1960 and 1992, dating back to 1928).

Still, even if one doesn't win a state it's important to build for down the road for the next Democratic Nominee. Ground work now could be beneficial later. It's the same as the situation in Texas. The majority of Latinos in Texas would vote Democratic, but the DNC has not made an effort to register them all and mobilize the vote. It's a missed opportunity. Texas could be winnable for the Democrats at some point in another decade if work was put into it.


Obama received 48% of the female vote in 2008 Texas. He could at least be winning over females (who vote Democratic before Republican; males do the opposite). I think the two major parties have an agreement, behind closed doors, that goes like this: These are your party's states. These are my party's states. We'll let the non-partisan swing states swing our elections. Screw campaigning throughout the nation! Too expensive. Too time-consuming. They're not worth trying to win a 400-vote Electoral College landslide anymore!"

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